NOAA Scientists Say La Niña is (Likely) Coming Back

After the arrival of the first El Niño season in eight years, the Pacific Ocean is starting to shift back into its neutral phase and will likely head into a La Niña this summer, according to scientists from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

A quick refresher: El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the global climate phenomenon that brings extreme weather such as floods and droughts. Compared to La Niña, El Niño seasons generally see wetter, warmer conditions in the Americana and drier conditions in Australia and South East Asia.

Those are two of the phases. The third “neutral” phase is when sea surface temperatures are closer to average. And with water temperature anomalies (cooler than normal) continuing to weaken across most of the equatorial Pacific Ocean, meteorologists say we'll most likely see a shift to neutral before moving into a La Niña this summer. 

According to a release from NOAA issued on April 11, the models indicate “a transition to ENSO-neutral during spring 2024, with La Niña potentially developing during late summer 2024. The forecast team continues to favor the dynamical model guidance, which is slightly more accurate than statistical models during this time of year. La Niña tends to follow strong El Niño events, which also provides added confidence in the model guidance favoring La Niña. In summary, a transition from El Niño to ENSO-neutral is likely by April-June 2024 (85% chance), with the odds of La Niña developing by June-August 2024 (60% chance).”

While it’s commonplace to associate El Niño with pumping surf, depending on where you surfed in the 2023-24 winter, even this past winter may not have lived up to the long-awaited expectations. But don’t lose hope. In some instances, La Niña winters can be just as productive as its counterpart (if the jet stream cooperates). Take the case in the 2022-23 Northern Hemi winter: we saw one of the best Eddie contests ever, Cortes Bank flexed again and Southern California saw its “swell of the decade.”

So stay tuned to the forecast. You never really know about these things.