The
Ultimate Fighting Championship goes all out in
Miami for what might be on paper the best pure MMA card of the year
regardless of promotion. Of the 14 bouts on the monster lineup,
eight could easily serve as the headliner of any UFC show.
Underdogs are poised to spring some mighty but foreseeable upsets
across the lineup, and plenty of money can be made. Join the
UFC
299 edition of Prime Picks as we expect one heavyweight will
show there are levels to this game, balk at the favored two in the
marquee matches and go bowling for options on the undercard.
STRAIGHT-UP CASH
When looking at the lineup of favorites on UFC 299—
Sean
O'Malley,
Benoit St.
Denis,
Kevin
Holland,
Jack
Della Maddalena and
Petr Yan—who
sounds most like a lock? If your answer is any of those names, your
confidence is much higher than most. Instead, we dip to the
preliminary headliner, with a heavyweight match that could headline
any UFC Fight Night event. To the surprise of some, Blaydes is not
even the odds-on favorite, as the two are technically in a pick’em,
although his foe,
Jailton
Almeida, is above him at -115. This grappler-on-grappler
violence should be a rude awakening for the Brazilian, who will
likely find out very quickly he cannot ragdoll Blaydes as he has
other opponents in the past.
In his 17-fight UFC tenure, the number of men to land takedowns on
Blaydes is
exactly
two:
Alexander
Volkov and
Cody East. The
former occurred during a division-leading 14-takedown effort
against Volkov, while the latter came early in Blaydes’ career in a
bout that he won by smashing East’s face off with ground-and-pound.
There is no blueprint for success when grappling against Blaydes,
and Almeida will certainly try to forge new territory. While the
totals are limited, few big men have even bothered trying, knowing
they will hit the 6-foot-4 stone wall in the junior college
national champ at Harper College. At heavyweight, that is more than
enough to shut anyone else down.
Questions about the Brazilian’s cardio were partially answered when
he went five rounds with
Derrick
Lewis, but it is hardly draining when the lumbering “Black
Beast” only lands on you 20 times in 25 minutes.
B.J. Penn
famously possessed soul-crushing energy reserves where he could
destroy the likes of
Kenny
Florian or
Diego
Sanchez and procure late stoppages. However, when the tables
were turned against him, a la
Georges St.
Pierre in their rematch, the lightweight great suddenly ran out
of gas. When Almeida is on cruise control, hanging on and smacking
his foes or searching for submissions, he can do that all day. On
the other hand, what happens when Blaydes stuffs his first, second
and third takedowns? Blaydes hits substantially harder, and Almeida
is not known for his prowess on the feet. This is his party to ruin
unless we see something never before displayed against him.
STRAIGHT-UP PASS
Much can change in a year or less. In July 2023, St. Denis was a
substantial underdog to
Ismael
Bonfim at some card at the UFC Apex, while
Dustin
Poirier closed as the betting favorite against
Justin
Gaethje in the headliner of UFC 291. Poirier succumbed to a
head kick, and St. Denis has rattled off three stoppages, which
leads the latter into his favored status in this five-round
non-title co-headliner. Much like how Gaethje had to defend his
place high on the rankings in his encounter against
Rafael
Fiziev, Poirier is tangling with the Frenchman. For reference,
Poirier (+170) has not been this high in terms of plus money when
not fighting for a title or in main events since his match with
Conor
McGregor in 2014. There are much better options than the
moneyline on “God of War” on this lineup.
Poirier was very close to taking the “Dog Will Hunt” portion of
this event, and that segment was also nearly transformed into
“dogs” plural to add Poirier and at least one other name to the
list. Instead, we keep our four betting categories to the standard
pay-per-view form. St. Denis has developed his striking by leaps
and bounds lately, with three of his four career knockouts coming
in the last two years. It is still wild, open and porous but
powerful, and he leaves plenty of opportunities to be countered.
Poirier can and will take advantage of any of these moments, and
Poirier’s excellence as a grappler cannot be dismissed. “The
Diamond” may have been submitted twice in the last five years, but
they were performed by the UFC’s all-time submission leader
Charles
Oliveira and the dominant
Khabib
Nurmagomedov. St. Denis might be a star on the rise, but this
looks like a “too much, too soon” pairing to leap from
Matt
Frevola to here.
DOG WILL HUNT
For starters, Vera already holds a non-controversial victory over
champion O’Malley. His strategy for victory was replicated by
Pedro
Munhoz, who exclusively threw and landed leg kicks that were
having an impact until O’Malley lanced the Brazilian’s eyeball with
an outstretched finger. Since that meeting, O’Malley has not tasted
defeat, although most considered his split decision win over
Petr
Yan a “Robbery of the Year” frontrunner in 2022. For reference,
on fight day,
every
single scoring media member handed in cards for Yan, amounting
to 26 scores in his favor to zero for O’Malley; the lone dissenting
media member changed his score days later after watching it again,
which is not how these scores are registered or tabulated. Vera is
a huge underdog and that should not be the case in the cage, no
matter how much better O’Malley has become in the last three-plus
years.
“Chito” remains in his athletic prime in this rematch, and he is
just as durable and heavy-handed as ever. His overall skill set may
not have changed since the first fight, but he has found ways of
putting power behind strikes that may not have been there as much
before. In addition to dropping
Rob Font and
Dominick
Cruz a
combined six
times, Vera was able to keep it close despite Sandhagen more
than
doubling him
up on significant strike totals because of his sheer firepower.
Vera still starts relatively slowly, and he cannot help but find
himself in a slugfest, where he is outstruck in raw numbers but
hits that much harder. A Vera that gets into a reckless brawl may
get popped by O’Malley, but O’Malley prefers to snipe rather than
trade leather. The iron-chinned live dog in “Chito” can push the
pace, chop down the lead legs and keep O’Malley honest with his
surprisingly accurate big shots to pick up another win.
AN ACCUMULATION CONTEMPLATION:
TOTAL ODDS: +110
Not many moneylines merit parlay consideration due to the serious
risks of the matchups, and several of the favorites in the -200
range face opponents with clear and reasonable paths to victory.
Chalk may win out, but who would be surprised if Vera chopped down
O’Malley again or Poirier snagged St. Denis in a sneaky brabo
choke? Instead, we go to a relative given: Cerminara goes to a
decision. In the entire UFC run for the woman formerly known as
Chookagian, only two fights have ended inside the distance.
Valentina Shevchenko and
Jessica
Andrade put her away with strikes, and Barber will try as hard
as she can to do the same. She will have to get inside to do so, as
the taller, longer Cerminara stays at the end of her jab and front
kick to kickbox her way to victory. With Cerminara’s underrated
ground game and distant striking approach, the two will likely be
in the cage for an extended time.
The sole pick we confidently make is former two-division KSW king
Gamrot against 39-year-old ex-UFC champ
Rafael dos
Anjos. While a decent enough striker, he rarely lets it be a
liability; dos Anjos’ success or failure largely depends on his
wrestling. It might be a bit of an oversimplification to say that
when he maintains the takedown and control advantage, he wins, but
when he does not, he loses, but it is not far off from the truth.
For example, foes like
Kamaru
Usman,
Colby
Covington,
Michael
Chiesa and even his last test of
Vicente
Luque had their way with him on the mat. On the other hand,
Bryan
Barberena,
Renato
Carneiro and
Paul Felder
could not get him off of them, whether on the ground or in a
clinch, and he prevailed. Gamrot, on paper, has the superior skill
set in this area, both in terms of getting the fight down and with
his anti-wrestling, making him a good option in a parlay with his
overall line a bit heavy for a single play.
Despaigne needed 19 seconds to wipe out three adversaries in his
last three fights. The taekwondo specialist maintains a reach that
surpasses
Jon Jones and
Stefan
Struve, and he has used it well so far in his burgeoning MMA
career. It remains to be seen how Despaigne will fare against an
opponent with a pulse, as his first four foes combined for a record
of 1-0. Luckily for Despaigne, he draws a fellow striker in
Parisian, who is not afraid of throwing hands even if it is to his
detriment. If Parisian absorbs shots he does not like, he is
capable of closing distance and securing takedowns. Finagling the
massive Cuban to the mat would be an undertaking while removing his
best weapons. One way or another, this fight will end by stoppage,
and it will not likely take long for it to happen.